Iran Has a New President – But Can We Expect Any Real Change?

On June 28, 2024, Iran held snap elections to replace President Raisi who had been killed in a helicopter crash on May 19 2024. Ordinarily the new elections would have run in June 2025.

Voters showed their lack of confidence in the Islamic Republic’s record lowest turnout: only 39.9% of the 61.45 million voters made their voice heard, including 1.2 million spoiled papers. This is despite Iran extending the voting time three times, and weeks-long efforts by officials to boost participation levels.

Iranians called the election process ‘irrelevant’ and were heard through their absence at polling stations. Many took to social media to discount even the 39.9% turnout claim, uploading image after image of empty polling stations. The anger and resentment is not limited to the modern secular youth. Even religious Iranians are fed up. Some of those approached for comment did not even know the candidates’ names. “It does not matter if it is Pezeshkian or Jalili, because the president is just a puppet.”

Dr Masoud Pezeshkian was the only reformist on the ballot paper. Few expected him to get elected. He had already run for president in 2013 and in 2021 and not got far: he and his entire reformist camp were barred by the Guardian Council in 2021. It begs the question – why was he allowed to run this time?

It appears that it benefits the regime to present a softer, less confrontational front, while continuing to push the same agenda behind closed doors. Tensions with the West are at an all-time high. More are calling for tougher sanctions and even for the children of wealthy Iranian Ayatollahs to be expelled from western countries where they currently enjoy access to all the freedoms their compatriots do not. If Pezeshkian can split western opinion on what to do with Iran, it will only serve Iran’s interests.

Who is Iran’s New President?

Masoud Pezeshkian is a 69-year-old heart surgeon, a reformist lawmaker, former health minister and a long-time representative of Tabriz in Iran’s parliament. His ideology goes back to the leftist ideals of the 1979 revolution.

He was born in Mahabad in western Iran in 1954 into an ethnically mixed family with an Azeri father and Kurdish mother. Farsi is not his mother tongue (heart language) – Azeri is. He has championed the rights of the Iran’s many ethnic minorities.

He is not immune to tragedy, having suffered personal loss in the death of his wife and son in a 1994 car crash. He never remarried and has raised two sons and a daughter as a single father.

His political career includes serving as the first vice Speaker of Parliament and Minister of Health. He has spoken passionately against the harassment of women and Iran’s unjust executions.

Following the protests of 2022, he famously said:

It is our fault. We want to implement religious faith through the use of force. This is scientifically impossible.

Will Iran’s New President Bring Any Real Change to Iran?

Pezeshkian has been described as Iran’s first “reformist” president since the Khatami Administration of 1997-2005.

But what does ‘reformist’ really mean in a political system like Iran?

Any Iranian politician will have been through a rigorous vetting process and commitment to the government’s Islamist laws. Iran’s political system does not tolerate dissent – for Pezeshkian to have got to this stage, he has to have demonstrated loyalty and conformity to the status quo. According to one analyst, “any individual who genuinely seeks to reform the system is likely to be swiftly eliminated, if not executed.”

When we speak with Iranians today, we see little hope for real change. The sentiment is that even if the president genuinely wants to bring change, it is doubtful he will muster enough political support (particularly from the IRGC) to bring even moderate reform to the dictatorial ruling powers. He will likely meet too many roadblocks to realize his vision. One of these roadblocks will surely be the speaker of Parliament, a hardliner, former IRGC general and devout follower of the Ayatollah, who has just lost the election to Pezeshkian.

We asked voters in Iran to share their thoughts on the process and on the new president:

I did not vote for any of them and have not done so for several elections. My opinion is that they are all the same and this is a game that has been going on for years.

From my perspective, certainly, some changes will happen, but not out of genuine concern or support for the people. It’s merely to silence the people and give them false hope, saying, “Look, this person has come and is making changes. This is the only educated president of Iran,” and things like that (deceiving people with the same old games). Otherwise, it’s the same old soup and the same old bowl.

You see, it doesn’t matter who becomes president. Even if you yourself were to become president, you wouldn’t be able to do anything. All these actions they have taken and the promises they make are just for show. The real decision-maker is Khamenei and his trusted aides. For example, just around election time, everything calms down, and no one is bothered no matter what you say. But now that the president has been chosen, no one is allowed to say anything that might upset the esteemed leaders.

The fact is that Pezeshkian could not have become president without consent from the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. Throughout his campaign he repeatedly pledged his loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and though he has called for reform, he has not called for reform in the letter of the law. His objection seems to be more in the brutal enforcement of the law, not the law itself.

By contrast, he has made it clear that he is not planning to introduce dramatic changes. In one interview he stated, “We are not going to change the direction, and the general policy is stability”. At the end of the day, he himself will have to work within the confines of the Islamic Republic and will continue to answer to the Supreme Leader. He does not have the authority to make drastic changes even if he wanted to.

Despite all the coverage on the desperate push for greater freedoms, what matters most to Iranians today is the economic crisis that looms over their day to day. In June, inflation stood just above 36%. It had been as high as 45% in 2023. In fact, Iran’s inflation rate has not dipped below 30% in more than five years. Largely fueled by sanctions and isolation on the world stage, the second highest priority for voters has been international relations and what the new president will do in building bridges with other nations.

What Did Masoud Pezeshkian Promise in His Campaign?

Throughout his campaign, Pezeshkian positioned himself as ‘the people’s president’. He was quick to empathize with despondent voters: “The pillar of society is its people. When 60% do not come to the polls, there is a problem, people have a problem with us.”

In 2009 he criticized how authorities suppressed protests against disputed election results and more recently in 2022, the morality police for their brutal response to the women-led protests.

By contrast, his competitor, Jalili, pledged to continue the policies of President Raisi. He stood for maintaining the traditional role of women as well as expanding ties with non-western powers strengthening Iran’s position against western pressures.

Better Relations with the West

He has called for reviving the nuclear deal to lift sanctions and bring Iran “out of isolation”.

Through his campaign he criticized Jalili for wanting to turn further away from the West. “We want to grow in the world: the more we increase our interactions, the better we can live. Let’s start with our neighbors and then progress as far as we can.” He told electorates that a vote for Jalili would likely mean more sanctions and a declining exchange rate.

In the days leading up to the election, Supreme Leader Khamenei made a veiled attack on Pezeshkian stating on national press that those thinking “all the ways of progress pass through the US … will not manage (the country) well”.

However, Pezeshkian has not departed from the overall goals of the regime: “God willing, we will try to have friendly relations with all countries except Israel.”

Better Opportunities and Freedom of Speech

In one of his election debates, he stressed, “If we want people to cooperate, people must believe that I will sit at the same table where they sit, and my children and relatives will be employed in the same way as their children and relatives are employed.” He also questioned the beating and imprisonment of protestors and students who voiced discontent.

Better Rights for Women

Single father Pezeshkian held his daughter’s hand when he submitted his candidacy. He worked hard to appeal to women through his campaign: “I know that women today don’t want someone else to decide their marriage, education, career, clothing and lifestyle. They want to make their own choices and it is their natural right to make decisions about their lives. I respect their choices and will do my best to provide a platform for them to become the best version of themselves.”

After voting, he added: “We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women.”

What Is The Christian Response To Iran’s New Leadership?

It has never been more important to pray for Iran. Let’s pray together for real change, and for Pezeshkian to encounter God and be radically transformed by the love of Jesus Christ!

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